Predict death with 90% accuracy without facts? According to an article on April 27 in the Christian Science Monitor, titled “Using Software to Model Death Row Outcomes”:

… an artificial neural network managed to… predict with more than 90 percent accuracy who would be executed.

What some observers find alarming about the outcome is that the 19 points of data supplied on each death-row inmate contained no details of the case. Only facts such as age, race, sex, and marital status were included, along with the date and type of offense.

What does this tell us? I am addressing this to law firm leaders but this should be equally fascinating to every lawyer, especially litigators. As lawyers we trust our power to reason and we rely upon that power in others. Do we rely upon this assumption to our own detriment? If you want to comprehend this, you must read Blink by Malcolm Gladwell (which is today #3 in the New York Times Best Selling List). blink_lg.jpg

17354581.jpg According to a story today in the Orlando Sentinel, the Florida State Bar nearly ruined the recipe for this ad by Orlando Law Firm Shuffield Lowman. The story reports that the Bar rejected the ad:

on the grounds that the phrase “Expect more from your law firm” created “unjustified expectations about results the attorney can achieve” and “compares the services of one attorney to another without factually substantiating the comparison.

GOOD GRIEF! Thankfully the Bar reversed itself on appeal. Brilliant Shuffield Lowman Marketing Director, Mellanie Bartlett,

unveiled the ad to the law firm’s entire staff in a ceremony that included a spoon and pint of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream for each person.

Food for thought: The head of a major bank confided in me that the ads they run on TV are as much to indoctrinate their own staff into the idea of serving customers as to attract business. I believe that a firm that publicly commits to serving its clients better and repeatedly communicates that message internally to its own staff will raise its own standards of service considerably and thus create competitive advantage. Launching the ad internally with some ice cream is the connection to the minds of the people at Shuffield Lowman, I see way too many neat ads for law firms that no-one in the firm knows anything about – so tell me, if they don’t know, how are they suppose to live the promises made. Bravo to Shuffield Lowman for having the imagination and courage to show the world their ice cream and the common sense to taste it themselves. I am a believer that your clients may indeed “Expect more from your law firm.”

The Art of War Blog has used a stimulating phrase “fail forward” in their recent blog entitled What We Know and What We Don’t.

“The science of strategy is based on a simple fact: we only know the tiniest fraction of what there is to know. This is true both of us as individuals and, because what we know is so small, of the largest groups, which combine our knowledge. When you think about everything that there is to know and compare it to what we actually know, our ignorance is monumental. Because of this, strategy is built to be very accepting of failure. The idea is to “fail forward” in such a way that, even when what you try doesn’t work, it puts you in a better position after your move than before it.”

Food for thought: It is quite natural for the best lawyers in the blue chip firms to be perfectionists, at least in so far as the practice of law is concerned. However, when it comes to formulating strategy, I believe that the perfectionist mindset must be suspended in favor of taking action. Many good firms are paralyzed by perfectionism and out-maneuvered by those who are willing to try things and learn from their efforts. It was Edison who was asked for a comment after trying over 2000 times to make a light bulb and still failing – he responded by saying he was the only person who know 2000 ways not to make a light bulb. Of course the firm must guard against embarrassing itself or offending clients but, at the same time, the willingness to fail is essential for learning how to become premiere business developers. Even amazing lawyers in amazing firms must fail on occasion, but when they do, they “fail forward”.

This is dejà vu of the now famous Dupont Model crafted by then inside lawyer Dan Mahoney. According to the Chicago Tribune wire reports published April 19, 2005, Allstate Corp will cut the number of outside law firms it uses each year to 13 from as many as 400.

Food for thought: This is indicative of a trend that many law firms don’t want to think about. Obviously Kirkland & Ellis did because they have already been selected as one of the “chosen”.

Law firm leaders should be anticipating this trend and assiting their clients in exploring the benefits of this strategy. What better way to make sure you stay on the short list, like Kirkland & Ellis did, instead of sliding into oblivion where all but 13 of Allstate’s 400 law firms are going.

The surviving 13 firms will have to manage better, serve better, and, if like the Dupont scenario, share knowledge with competitors. The benefits will be enormous for both Allstate and the surviving firms.

The attached PDF of my presentation slides is for those in attendance on September 15, 2007 only.  It is password protected.

Download: Gerry Riskin’s Keynote Slides

(Posting backdated to 2001 so that  it would not appear in aggregators and be publicized.)

Continue Reading Presentation for Participants on September 15, 2007 Only

The attached PDF of my presentation slides is for those in attendance on February 18, 2010 only.  It is password protected.

Download: Gerry Riskin’s Slides

(Posting backdated to 2001 so that it would not appear in aggregators and be publicized.)

Continue Reading Presentation for Participants on February 18, 2010 Only